Towards a Dynamic Understanding of Waste-to-Energy Futures
The WECoS project uses system dynamic modelling to integrate the energy system, WtE operations and high-level policy goals such as increased material reuse and net-zero targets and aims at facilities decision-making practices in this complex system.
System dynamics simulation modelling is a took that facilitates/supports decision-making practices made by municipalities and industry where WtE operations, the energy system, and high-level policy goals such as increased material reuse and net-zero targets are integrated.
Models are increasingly used to support decision-making for complex socio-technical problems, yet challenges remain to embed the use of such models into current decision-making practices.
When it comes to waste-to-energy (WtE), different modelling approaches have been used to support decision-making in an applied manner with municipal actors and regional industries both in Sweden and globally regarding the role of WtE. The most applied methods are Life-Cycle-Assessment (LCA), cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). These are relatively static, providing a snapshot of waste management systems, generally at high levels of detail.
The WECoS (Waste-to-Energy collaborative system dynamic modelling) project takes a different approach, using system dynamics simulation modelling. We focus on the integration between the energy system, WtE operations and high-level policy goals such as increased material reuse and net-zero targets.
A key advantage is the ability to turn the modelling snapshot of commonly applied methods, into a “film”, uncovering the behavior over time of key variables and cause effect mechanisms driving simulated outcomes. System dynamics is implemented within a visual, object-oriented environment, increasing transparency of model assumptions, allowing for the creation of a shared representation of the WtE system and encouraging direct input from actors with influence, interest or that are affected by decisions. From a practical perspective, we seek to make the model and results useful as well as usable for our partners.
From a research perspective, we investigate two novel aspects:
1) Testing new approaches to delivering model results by creating custom dashboards and evaluating their effectiveness as a shared negotiation tool.
2) Investigation of how to integrate behavioural elements in the modelled WtE system through choice modelling (revealed preference & state preferences approached).
The WECoS project organized the webinar “System Dynamics: Decision tool for Municipalities & Waste-to-Energy” on the 12th of November where Michaël Becidan (SINTEF, Norway) & Mar Edo (RISE, Sweden), the Norwegian and the Swedish NTL for Task 36, participated as panellists together with experts from the Swedish Waste Management Association (Avfall Sverige, Sweden), NOAH (Norway) and RISE (Research Institutes of Sweden, Sweden).
Stay tuned and don’t miss the main results from the WECoS project that will be released during 2025!
PROJECT DETAILS:
Project start: 01/03/2023
Duration: 3 years
Total budget: 7.1 MSEK
Partners: NSR, Helsingborgs stad, Öresundskraft, Näringslivets Producentansvar
Funders: Energimyndigheten (MEASAM) – The Swedish Energy Agency
Project run by RISE, Research Institutes of Sweden
Project page: WECOS: WtE in Sweden’s Circular Economy- Collaborative System Dynamics Modelling.
